It seems like just yesterday the 2008 election ended, but now the heat is slowly starting to get dialed up for mid-term elections. Either time really does fly, or we truly have in our 21st century, 24-hour news cycle become a nation of the never-ending campaign.
I figured I would step behind the 8-ball and make a general prediction several months out. Why not? I tend to have a knack for these things.
In January 2006, I predicted virtually spot on how many Senate and House seats the Democrats would pick up. Conversely, pundits and national journalists were completely wrong. In January 2008, I predicted Obama as the Democratic nominee, winner of the election and I predicted the House and Senate virtually spot on. This year, I expect there to be more Republicans warming seats in both chambers.
However, I completely reject popular sentiment by pundits and others that this is to be some sort of 1994 mid-term landslide.
For the Democrats, you have several Senate seats that are filled by appointments, as well as retirements in states that are fairly safe, depending on the prominence of the challenger.
Outside of Sen. Byron Dorgan's seat, which is a sure Republican pickup, the only Democrats I could see with a very strong chance of being upended are Michael Bennet of Colorado and Harry Reid. There could be an upset in Delaware if Joe Biden's son doesn't run, or in Arkansas with Blanche Lincoln, if Republicans were to pull off something akin to this week's Massachusetts election.
With the Republicans, they also have a series of retirements that get little attention. Some of them may be very competitive and offset projected Republican gains.
Kit Bond of Missouri could be a potential Democrat pick-up, depending on who runs, as could Judd Gregg's seat in New Hampshire and George Voinovich of Ohio.
Depending on how projected safe incumbents do for each party and barring surprises among these races or a few others, I see a pickup of maybe two or three more Republican seats at most.
As for the House, it would take pages of analysis and a lot of research, but I see a moderate number of Republican gains. I would say they're likely evenly divided districts and in places won by slim margins by Democrats in 2006 and 2008.
I would put the Republicans gaining somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 or so House seats, maybe approaching 20 at most. The Democrats are going to fight hard not to lose too much ground, and are going to lose some no matter what. However, I believe there is a lot of hot air regarding a landslide coming from pundits and far too early.
A lot can change in a year. Regardless, no one can say it won't be interesting.




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