President Donald Trump’s campaign for a second term has stalled. In public opinion surveys, he has trailed Democratic nominee Joe Biden, sometimes by a wide margin, for more than a year. His share of support from voters has been below 45% for six months. No incumbent president in half a century has won reelection from so far behind.

The most recent estimate by FiveThirtyEight, a forecasting group, gives Trump a 29% chance of winning — a bit less than one in three. But as it happens, 29% is the same probability FiveThirtyEight gave a Trump victory just before the 2016 election, when he defeated Hillary Clinton.

So Trump has beaten the odds before. And this time, he has two advantages that he didn’t have four years ago: the powers of incumbency and a massively funded campaign that’s already flooding battleground states with television advertising.

“Biden has an advantage at the moment,” Republican pollster David Winston told me. “But there are clearly things Trump can do to move things forward.”

The president has a clearly defined strategy, and it comes in three parts.

First, he’s trying to discredit Biden, painting him as too weak to be an effective president.

The first version was “Sleepy Joe,” but that attempt to paint Biden as mentally feeble didn’t stick. Then it was “Puppet Joe,” but arguing that Biden is controlled by left-wing extremists didn’t fit either.

In a television interview last week, Trump even charged (without evidence, of course) that Biden was using performance-enhancing drugs — the only possible explanation, the president claimed, for his opponent’s ability to give a lucid speech.

The president’s attacks may seem scattershot, but they’re designed to reinforce a common theme: Trump is strong; Biden is weak.

A second line of attack is law and order: Trump has tried to capitalize on violence in several cities by warning that a Democratic victory would make Americans more vulnerable to crime.

“You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America,” the president has warned — ignoring the fact that the current disorders arose three years into his own presidency.

It’s a classic conservative pitch, similar to a theme Trump sounded successfully in 2016, and it’s aimed mainly at two audiences. One is Trump’s voting base of white working-class voters; some of the president’s advisors believe they can lure more of them to the polls by sharpening the culture war. The other target is people who voted for Trump in 2016 but have drifted away since, especially suburban women and older voters.

This argument hasn’t created a detectable increase in support for Trump, but it has succeeded in increasing voters’ worries about crime. A Quinnipiac poll in Florida last week found that “law and order” had risen to second place in a list of voters’ top concerns, behind the troubled economy but ahead of the coronavirus that is on track to kill 200,000 Americans by election day.

Trump’s third front — and perhaps the most important — is a drive to reshape voters’ view of reality on the two points where he is most vulnerable: his record on the pandemic and the economy.

“The two central issues are defeating the virus and getting America working again — not only getting the economy going, but getting kids back in school,” Winston said. “Voters want to hear solutions to those problems.”

The president’s economic pitch is straightforward: He’s seizing every sign that the economy has begun to recover from its pandemic-induced recession to argue that prosperity is just around the corner.

On Friday, it was the news that unemployment fell to 8.4% in August, its fourth consecutive month of decline from a peak of 14.7% in April, when it was the highest since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Will it be enough to pull Trump over the finish line?

He’s well behind Biden, and the fundamentals — a deadly virus and millions out of work — still stand in his way. But if Trump catches a few breaks — if the Food and Drug Administration grants emergency authorization for a vaccine, if the pandemic ebbs, if the economy bounces back, if Biden stumbles — this could be a very close election.

Just like the one that sent him to the White House in 2016.

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(52) comments

23merkaba

The child porn "Cuties" the left has put out on Netflix (no I've never had it) is truly disgusting.

BigBob

You just cannot control yourself when it comes to lying, can you?

RESIST

One really doesn't need Netflix to see "child porn". The internet is full of photos of trump at Jeffery Epstein's "teen parties" and posing with porn stars and teenagers! And how about those creepy photos of him and child Ivanka?

CVA-42

Here's a real pedophile in action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wULYda4NzdQ

BigBob

Oh, fan, why do you insist upon embarrassing yourself with really stupid comments? As one of my adoring fans I hate to call you out, but when you obviously have no idea what an actual pedophile is I have no choice. Now just to clarify, and help you out, here are a few examples of an actual pedophile in action. You’re welcome.

https://mashable.com/2016/02/01/trump-daughter/

https://www.indy100.com/article/donald-trump-ivanka-inappropriate-daughter-9594016

https://scribol.com/news-and-politics/awkward-photos-donald-ivanka-trump-cringe/8/

CVA-42

Sorry Rovr. A real pedophile goes by the name of Joe Biden. The one that like to touch 'little' girls.

HavasuGuy

tRUMP lied and Americans died! tRUMP is the hoax! Anyone that still supports him is a fool!

“Your”welcome

Mind you “HG” is for defunding our police and is okay with the Crime going on in our country! He’s marching with “BLM” protesters in Phoenix as he’s stated previously! The hundreds of murders going on this week in just “Chicago” he’s okay with! The violence in “Portland” is very peaceful to havasuguy! It’s you “Americans” that are backing the police and America’s history that he has a problem with!

HavasuGuy

And still you defend tRUMP "your" a fool.

I never said that I don't back the blue or that I'm okay with the violence from both the left AND the right. You didn't mention that I marched at the peaceful protest here in Lake Havasu either, why? Was it because, like the Phoenix rally I went to, the Lake Havasu rally was peaceful too and doesn't fit "your" lies about the efforts to reduce unnecessary deaths of Americans by the small number of criminals in uniform?

The only problem I have is fools like you backing a loser that lies continuously to the citizens of America and the world. Instead of "your" lies why don't you open "your" eyes.

"Your" a fool.

“Your”welcome

Hey “Mascot” you ever thought about poetry? Might be your calling! I’m very satisfied with being a fool! I’ll be out today in my “Trump/Pence 2020” shirt, hat and ever so handy mask! If you see me say hello!

RESIST

[censored]You really expect anyone to believe this load of bullpucky? No one is okay with crime. No one is okay with murders in Chicago or any city. Violence and peaceful is an oxymoron. Most all Americans back the police but not the criminals in the police force. I'd welcome a debate on America's history between you and HG!

RESIST

And people are still dying with just days before we reach 200,000 dead! What we don't hear mention of is the tens of thousands of Americans who suffered in hospitals, ICU's and on ventilators while trying to recover. Happily, they made it but many are suffering symptoms months later! 4 more years of death and destruction at the hands of incompetent, lying trump, dear God, no!

BigBob

Here you go!

https://www.facebook.com/144899702713065/videos/632478654077539

“Your”welcome

What a joke ! Bobby, following a “thank you Obama” Facebook! You gotta be kidding me! This is where you get information? No wonder your crazy!

BigBob

"Your" (sic) - Who is "Bobby" - "you're".

CVA-42

Here you go Rovr!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lvVP1sS5_0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXJH-PjsybE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWjkad6-7Qk

BigBob

Oh, fan, you continue to disappoint with the posting of you-tube trash as being somehow worthwhile. Just be quiet for awhile, everyone will really appreciate it.

IcePick

Mr BoB. But Videos are ok if from Facebook. You're a real Joker!

IcePick

Well if its on Facebook it has to be true. Didn't they say old flea bag Clinton was gonna win 2016?? Oh ya they did!!

RESIST

[censored]You shouldn't have gone there, IcePick! Now you've crossed the line![censored]

simon1dog

I will be voting Trump / Pence 2020 as will the majority of Americans :-)

BigBob

Sorry, but the numbers show the majority of Americans have no use for the lying con-man in the White House and Republican are bailing left and right - Facts are fun. Thousands of Republican have publicly shared why they chose to abandon the Republican Party. Many cited the Republican Party’s nomination of trump nearly four years ago for president or specific decisions made by trump during his presidency as the stimulus for their departure. One of the most telling comments came from Christian author Susan Bagwell who said, in January, “I left the GOP because they no longer represent me or my values as a Christian or a conservative. They’re p***y-grabbing, lying, hateful, immoral weasels. I’m a happy Independent, now. No party owns my vote. It has to be EARNED!” https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ileftthegop-republicans-leave-party_n_5e2f62d2c5b6d34ea103dd04

CVA-42

WOW. An article from Huffpost. Now we know where Rovr gets his news. I thought you said you were intelligent,

BigBob

Who is this "Rovr" you keep talking about? Is he one of those voices in your head, because no one can see any comment from a "Rovr." But don't worry, fan, your intellectual failings are well knowd and we still like you anyway..

BigBob

Sorry, fan, should have been more explicit - so far the following news organizations have reported on trump lying about the COVID19- dangers - CNBC, CNN, Washington Post, ABC, Fox News, Fox Business, MSNBC, NewsMax, CBN, AZ Republic, L.A. Times, S.F. Chronicle, N Y Daily News, N Y Times, Seattle Post Intelligencer, Atlanta Journal, Dallas Morning News, to name a few. Want more, my adoring fan? Just ask.

RESIST

[thumbup]Check out The Lincoln Project founded by former Republican operatives!

RESIST

[beam][beam][beam][beam][beam][beam][beam] Really, roflmao! The "majority of Americans" despise the vile creature!

23merkaba

Trump has now declared his campaign rallies as "peaceful protests"! Hilarious to watch as he outmaneuvers the left as they desperately struggle against him. I'm sure Michael Cohen's book will be real persuasive, LOL

BigBob

So funny to watch the trumpers come up with utter garbage about "he left" while their lying con-man contuses to make then look like idiots.

In February trump knew the coronavirus posed a deadly threat to the citizens of our nation, even going so far as to state the virus is, “more deadly than even your strenuous flus.” At the time, trump publicly downplayed the virus as no more dangerous than the flu with lies he fed to the American people – ““We have it very much under control in this country.” “It’s going to be just fine.” “It’s one person coming in from China.” “We’re doing a great job with it.” “It’s going to have a very good ending for us.” “We’re in great shape.” “We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” “Just stay calm. It will go away.” “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.” “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

In preparing for a new book Bob Woodward recorded trump saying, “You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed. And so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu. This is deadly stuff. I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.” However trump did not prevent panic, instead by lying he provoked it and the result, so far, over 195,000 Americans are dead.

23merkaba

As Soro's army of useful idiots (modern day brown shirts) is being allowed to run around and wreak havoc . Trump in the background is taking us off the Petrodollar and dismantling the Fed Reserve and Central Bank

BigBob

Actually the "brown shirts" would be trumps army that attacks American citizens who are peacefully protesting. AN what trump is doing in he background is destroying the Postal Service, shutting off Social Security to millions of elderly Americans and taking away health care access to millions more. And massively ignorant fools keep supporting him.

RESIST

[thumbup][thumbup][thumbup] Exactly but this isn't important to his base. At least not until it affects them personally!

23merkaba

After the D's believed the "losers and suckers" thing ,which was a quote taken from the end of the movie "The Godfather 2" Trump brilliantly pivoted now made the Main Stream Media start defending the Military Industrial Complex. I wonder who in Oct the D's are going to Replace Biden with... Hillary...Michelle...

BigBob

When President Biden is sworn in we will see him immediately jail the entire trump grifter family, have VP Harris remove every appointee trump has installed and begin to return our nation to greatness.

RESIST

[thumbup] Hallelujah!!!!

hvnfun

Maybe he should release his taxes as promised, and while he is at it release all his college grades, he insulted Ocasio, he should put up or shut up. Maybe try going a day without insulting anyone or lying, that would be refreshing. Recent article I read indicated that trump will not be harmed by the latest revelation that he called our dead soldiers losers because the republican party no longer cares about morals or the character of the president, it is the party of trump, no morals required.

BigBob

Remember Trump was the one who made tax returns an issue in 2012 when he said Romney should not be allowed to run if he did not show his tax returns. Trump, when asked, said he would "certainly" release his returns if he were to run. Then he claimed he could not because of an "audit" - a lie. Then he said he would show them "later", then it was he would show them "after the election." So, tell us why he will not release his tax returns? What is Trump hiding from the American people?

Quotes -

“Maybe I’m going to do the tax returns when Obama does his birth certificate” April 2011

“If I decide to run for office, I’ll probably produce my tax returns, absolutely, and I would love to do that.” May 2014

“I have no objections to certainly showing my tax returns.” February 2015

“I’m being audited now for two or three years, so I can’t do it until the audit is finished” (a total lie) February 2016

“We’ll be releasing that...You know they’re going to be surprised how little I pay. I fight like hell not to pay a lot tax.” February 2016

“Hopefully, before the election, I’ll release. And I‘d like to release. By the way, you learn very little from a tax return.” May 2016

“The only that cares about my tax returns are the reporters.” (Another lie) January 2017

“Oh at some point, I’ll release them. Maybe I’ll release them after I’m finished because I’m very proud of them, actually, I did a good job.” May 2017

It amazes me that we have not seen trumps tax reruns, but we've all seen his wife's...uhh, you know.

RESIST

[beam]

RESIST

[thumbup]

deaton

Well if you’re looking for some entertainment, here’s twenty minutes of laughs!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzBdBj5QWyY

Now BigBob, HavasuGuy [batman], the UC Twit Davel2 will call this YouTube “trash” but they can’t deny that this is “their guy”! Dementia Joe in all his glory? (Copy & Paste into your browser search bar) grab a beer, sit back and enjoy! [thumbup][tongue][whistling] Deaton

23merkaba

Trump wants the drug test for a different reason. Let's see if the baby food news crowd can figure it out...

BigBob

Tell us exactly why trump wants Biden to be drug tested? And of course trump will be tested as well, right? Oh wait, he did not volunteer to be tested. Wonder why?

23merkaba

HCQ

BigBob

You really shouldn't dink that it makes you act stupid - oh, wait, too late.

CVA-42

'dink'? What are you blabbering about now. Be a little more precise in your speech so we all know what you are trying to say.

deaton

“Tell us exactly why trump wants Biden to be drug tested?” BigBob see my 10:52 am comment above, says it all? Sweet dreams BB [thumbup][rolleyes][love] Deaton

HavasuGuy

tRUMP could win (and America too) if he votes for Biden!

Vince Gors

IF biden Stumbles?[lol]

BigBob

Not to worry, President Biden will be sworn in and immediately have the trump grifter clan arrested.

deaton

Got it BigBob, thanks, 55 days and counting! [tongue][love] Deaton

BigBob

If trump is going to make things better after he’s elected, why doesn’t he just do it now?

REMINDER: Writer E. Jean Carroll says that President Trump sexually assaulted her in the 1990s, and that she has the dress she was wearing during the incident. She's demanding Trump's DNA to prove the assault, and Trump is inexplicably refusing to provide it. IS THAT HOW AN INNOCENT MAN ACTS? And now Bill Barr wants the TAXPAYER-FUNDED Justice Department to defend Trump in the lawsuit? UNBELIEVABLE.

The Biden campaign is calling on President Trump to address three questions before releasing a coronavirus vaccine:

• the criteria used to ensure it meets scientific standards

• who will validate those standards were met

• how it can be safely distributed

RESIST

[censored][thumbdown]

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